Bear case, Bull case and Alts

The bearish case I see:

1. Too many longs everywhere (Bitfinex, Gate and we can see it on the premiums on USDT pairs and futures

2. Many ALTUSD charts have broken and closed below their 200 DMA, while more alts pop up

3. The altcoin bubble hasn’t fully burst yet and that is a negative for Bitcoin

4. CME gaps below 9k

5. Double bottom at 9.1k ‘wanting’ to be broken (best place to buy is in the 7800-8400 area)

6. Too many touches on the 100 DMA and trendline

7. Still haven’t been oversold on the daily RSI

8. Went up too much too fast and 2 months of consolidation might not be enough

9. Macro picture calling for risk off and Bitcoin could initially suffer from that as people are uncertain as to what could happen and have no idea how Bitcoin could potentially react

10. We have been rejected by both P pivots (Monthly and Weekly) as well as the 50 DMA

The bullish case I see:

1. We are still above most major moving averages

2. HTF momentum and structure still bullish

3. LTF structure turning bullish slowly (forming higher lows and higher highs)

4. Sideways chop at support with low volatility has been bullish through 2019

5. Several alts have gone up in BTC terms and did some bearish retests (usually fuels BTC as people come back to it)

6. Bitcoin dominance is still in a bull run

7. Bakkt is coming in September 23, final ETF decisions in October 18 (if I am not mistaken) and the halving is less than 9 months away

8. Bitcoin fundamentals have never been better in terms of technology and adoption

9. Many traditional investors have started looking at Bitcoin as an alternative to Gold . It is uncorrelated with other assets and it has some very useful and interesting properties. In an era were the fiat ponzi’s collapse has started, many woke people have started paying attention

What I see for altcoins:

1. This is the first time that the Bitcoin dominance has started looking like distribution

2. It hit my minimum viable target for me to seriously consider an alt season (70%)

3. With Bitcoin ranging for so long and with the potential to range even more, they might get their time to shine

4. An alt season will most likely happen before the halving as whales will want to accumulate BTC

5. Since late June – early July they have fallen quite a bit against BTC , even though Bitcoin has pretty much stayed the same

6. Several small caps are showing interesting signs of life while large caps are slowly breaking their downtrends by moving sideways (in BTC terms)

7. For me to believe that this has a chance of being the beginning of an alt season I’d have to see alts go up in BTC terms even when Bitcoin starts rising. If it drops and they go up in BTC terms it doesn’t mean that it is the beginning of an alt season. It would definitely need more time for them to prove that they are ready than just going higher as BTC drops.